Minxin Pei says the once irrefutable Communist Party rule is being tested today by a more confident Chinese people, And leaders preparing to take charge have reason to worry
The South China Morning Post | Insight & Opinion / Read original in English
Saturday, 3 November 2012
Sometimes the books that a country's top leaders read can reveal a lot about what they are thinking.. That is why one of the books recently read by some of the future members of the Steering Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party may become a surprise.: The Old Regime and the Revolution, by Alexis de Tocqueville.
These leaders, to whom the party will pass the baton in the 18thº congress, scheduled for next Thursday, It is reported that they not only read Tocqueville's diagnosis of social conditions on the eve of the French Revolution, but they also recommended it to their friends. Yes that's how it is, The obvious question is why China's future rulers are circulating a foreign classic about social revolution..
The answer is not difficult to find. In all probability, These leaders feel, whether instinctively or intellectually, an imminent crisis that could endanger the survival of the party in the same way that the French Revolution ended the reign of the Bourbons.
The telltale signs of anxiety are already visible. Capital flight from China is already at an all-time high. Surveys of China's dollar millionaires reveal half of them want to emigrate. Amid intensifying calls for democracy, the Chinese leader in waiting, Xi Jinping, It was reported that he met with the son of the deceased Hu Yaobang, political reformer and icon of liberal Chinese. Although you don't have to read too much about this visit, It's safe to say that China's next leader knows that the Celestial Kingdom is becoming unstable..
The idea of some kind of political crisis engulfing China in the coming years might seem to many, -particularly businessmen and political elites of the West, who have taken for granted the power and durability of the Communist Party- absurd. in their minds, the party in power seems indestructible. But several emerging trends, unnoticed or reported only in isolation, have greatly altered the balance of power between the party and Chinese society, with the former losing credibility and control and the latter gaining strength and confidence.
One such trend is the rise of independent figures of public moral authority.: successful businessmen, respected academics and journalists, famous writers and influential bloggers. To be sure, The party has followed the strategy of getting social elites on its side since the Tiananmen Square massacre in June 1989. But people like Hu Shuli (who founded two influential business magazines), Pan Shiyi (an open real estate developer), Yu Jianrong (a social scientist and public intellectual), Wu Jingian (a prominent economist) and bloggers Han Han and Li Chengpeng achieved success on their own, and have maintained their independence.
Taking advantage of the internet and weibo (the chinese equivalent of twitter) They have become advocates of social justice.. Their moral courage and social stature have helped them, in turn, to build mass support (measured by the tens of millions of followers on their weibo). Their voices often, They rethink the terms of social policy and put the party on the defensive.
for the party, This development is clearly worrying.. They are now ceding the dominant command posts in Chinese politics to autonomous representatives of social forces they cannot control.. The party's monopoly on public moral authority is long gone., and now their monopoly on political power is at risk too.
That loss is compounded by the collapse of the party's credibility among ordinary people.. Without a doubt, the opacity, the party's secrecy and inclination to lie, always involved a credibility problem. But in the past decade, a series of scandals and crises, that involved public safety, adulteration of food and medicines, and environmental pollution, have completely destroyed what little credibility was left.
One such episode was the sale of contaminated baby formula., in 2008. Official suppression of news about the incident (which occurred just before the Beijing Olympic Games) not only did it lead to the death of at least 6 children, but also left ordinary Chinese, even more distrustful of authorities. On the environmental front, Perhaps the most telling incident is Beijing residents' preference for air quality readings from the US embassy., to those of his government.
For a regime whose credibility is gone, the costs of maintaining power are exorbitant, and eventually unbearable, because it must resort to repression more frequently and harsher.
But the crackdown is giving diminishing returns for the party, forcing a third revolutionary development: the dramatic decrease in the cost of collective action. Autocracies remain in power if they can divide the population and prevent organized opposition activities. Although the party does not face any organized opposition today, confronts virtually organized protest activities, daily.
Based on estimates by Chinese sociologists, every day they happen, 500 conflicts, collective protests and strikes, almost four times more than a decade ago. With widespread ownership of mobile phones and Internet-connected computers, it is easier than before to organize supporters and allies.
She further , The growing challenge reflects public perception that authorities have grown fearful of people and a tendency to give in to demands when confronted by angry protesters..
In some of the most high-profile collective protests in the past year –the land dispute in Wukan, in Guangdong and the environmental protests in Dalian, Shifang y Qidong- the government backed down.
If governing by fear is not more sustainable, China's new rulers must begin to fear for the future of the party. As the country's silent political revolution continues to unfold, The question is whether they will pay attention to your signals., or they will try to maintain an order that –like in the french monarchy- cannot be saved.-
Minxin Pei is Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna University and a nonresident senior fellow at the German Marchall Fund of the United States..
——————————————————-
Known as Phuntso
Liaison Officer for Latin America
TIBET OFFICE
New York
Email: phuntso@igc.org
