It is not known if the collapse of your bag is a stumbling block or will have catastrophic effects
FRANCISCO G. Basterra 16 ENE 2016
If we admit that China's rise is the most important data to solve the 21st century equation, It is unavoidable to pay maximum attention to the fall of its economic growth and the collapse of their bags. We do not know if this stumbling block in which almost a quarter of humanity lives, It's just that, A setback, or predict a catastrophic landing of the second world economy with serious internal political consequences, and its strategic overflow to the international scene, with political fear even surpassing economic.
¿China will inoculate the virus of the great recession making us return to 2008? The world no longer has a tractor to pull the economy: The US is no longer enough as a locomotive and China cannot replace it. On the contrary, His ability to contagion, In the largest transition it is better unless it is more, It is deep. Its successful state capitalism without freedom is cracking by not achieving the balance between the auditor and the market. The Chinese Communist Party cannot lose control of the economy, whose growth is its main legitimation asset, Without unleashing internal tensions and losing dominance of the country.
Maximum concern of President XI, The Chinese leader who has monopolized more power from Mao, and absolute red line in the internal strategy. Increase repression over dissidents, as well as Internet censorship; Critical booksellers disappear in Hong Kong. While consolidating its power through a hard anti -corruption campaign that frightens and serves it at the same time to get rid of possible rivals. ¿What is Xi Jinping's Chinese dream? Definitely, internal stability; China's Pacific ascent avoiding the outbreak of conflicts between urban and rich China of the coast and the rural interior, Thanks to the constant improvement of citizens' standard of living.
Let's not forget that China is still, Out of a narrow coastal strip that trades globally, A poor Third World country with 650 millions of inhabitants living in homes that enter less than 4 dollars daily, According to World Bank figures. The foreign strategy is condensed in reducing the influence of the United States in Asia, consolidating as the first Asian power, and keep your maritime exits open to the Pacific and Indian, that today can be easily blocked by the US. The sea lanes to which it exports its products and receives the stream of raw materials necessary for its development.
Reality, Explains strategic analyst George Friedman, is that China is an isolated country, deeply divided internally with the problems of Uigures Muslims in Xinjiang, And also in Tibet, Autonomous regions with populations that reject the Chinese domination of the majority ethnicity have. Avoid instability defines everything else that China does. Mutual distrust between the West and China causes either of the two parties, that support a mutual feeling of superiority, know how to handle the most important relationship of this century. Attention.
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